발간현황-우크라·러시아 전쟁에서‘드론혁명’가능성 검토-한국군사문제연구원

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우크라·러시아 전쟁에서‘드론혁명’가능성 검토
Review of the‘Drone Revolution’Thesis in the Case of Ukraine War

저 자	송승종
출 처	한국군사
발행 년도	2023. 12
주제 키워드	드론 혁명우크라·러시아 전쟁팔린티어공격·방어 균형드론의 평준화 효과근접전투와 지상작전게임체인저
첨부파일
초 록 [국문]
본 연구의 목적은 ‘드론이 전쟁의 혁명’을 촉발했다는 ‘드론혁명’ 주장을 사례연 구를 통해 검토해 보는 것이다. 이를 위해 우크라·러시아 전쟁 사례에 공격-방어 균형, 드론의 평준화 효과, 군사력 운용 등 3개 요인을 적용하여, 상기 주장을 검증해 볼 것이다. 기존 연구에서 칼카라 등(Calcara et al.)은 상기 주장을 對리 비아 공격(2019-2020), 시리아 내전(2011-2021), 아르메니아-아제르바이잔 분쟁(2020)에 적용했다. 이와 대조적으로 본 연구는 우크라·러시아 전쟁에 초점 을 맞출 것이다. 이를 통해 선행연구에서 검토되었던 위의 3개 사례에 우크라·러 시아 전쟁 사례를 포함 및 최신화시킴으로써, ‘드론혁명’ 주장에 대한 보다 실증 적·포괄적 분석을 시도해 보고자 한다.
초 록 [영문]
The Washington Post has dubbed the war between Ukraine and Russia as the first instance of “algorithmic warfare” in human history. The Ukrainian military combined advanced artificial intelligence-based battlefield analysis software, developed by Palantir, with Starlink and drones to create an “electronic kill chain on the digital battlefield.” This innovative approach has been called a “revolution in warfare,” with drones playing a critical role. As a result of the Ukraine-Russia war, several arguments have been put forward regarding the use of drones in warfare. These include the notion that drones can trigger an “unmanned revolution in military affairs,” that they are “magic bullets” or “tactical gamechangers,” and that they are reshaping the battlefield and geopolitics. Others argue that drones significantly reduce human and financial costs and that they will eventually replace large-scale ground warfare. This study seeks to test the thesis of the “drone revolution” by examining three dependent variables: the offense-defense balance, the leveling effect of drones, and the potential for reducing or eliminating the need for close combat and ground operations. Previous studies by Calcara and others have applied this same thesis to the Western Libya military campaign (2019-2020), the Syrian civil war (2011-2021), and the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh (2020). In contrast, this study focuses specifically on the ongoing Ukraine-Russia war and seeks to provide an empirical and comprehensive examination of the “drone revolution” thesis. By updating previous case studies and including the Ukraine-Russia war, this study aims to offer valuable strategic implications derived from the results of testing this thesis. In summary, the purpose of this paper is to undertake a more thorough examination of the use of drones in modern warfare, with a specific focus on the Ukraine-Russia conflict. By exploring the strategic implications of drone technology and examining how it has reshaped the battlefield, this study seeks to contribute to demystifying the “drone revolution” thesis, from the perspective of military history.

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