North Korea's Southward Provocations: Analysis and Forecast | |||||||||
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North Korea's Southward Provocations: Analysis and Forecast | |||||||||
Author | ÀÌÈ£·É |
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Source | Vol. 73 |
Year of publication | March 2024 |
Keyword | |
File |
North Korea has been escalating tensions by announcing a drastic shift in its South Korea policy. On the basis of analyses of past provocations by North Korea and those since Kim Jong-un regime. it is possible to forecast possibility, timing and type of the Communist nation's provocations in 2024 as follows. First, North Korea will probably revise its constitution at the forthcoming 15th Supreme People's Assembly in April and carry out military provocations in the vicinity of the West Sea Northern Limit Line (NLL). Second, it may show off newly developed weapons for the purpose of pumping up strategic bluff both quantitatively and qualitatively. Third, therefore, the Pyongyang regime is more likely to come up with 'hybrid provocations' such as hacking, radio jamming, cyber attacks, drone infiltration, etc., combined with traditional military provocation and strategic muscle-flexing. This may make the disputed area near the West Sea NLL a flashpoint in 2024.